Al-Ittihad FC 0-1 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ettifaq encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ettifaq meet at King Abdullah Sports City in Pro League, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Friday 16 January 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Ittihad FC's overall Pro League record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at King Abdullah Sports City, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 7W 0D 3L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Al-Ettifaq have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W D W W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Ettifaq have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for Al-Ittihad FC against 1.50 for Al-Ettifaq. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Al-Ittihad FC, who have won 5 of the last 8 meetings against Al-Ettifaq — a 2D 1W return for the visitors.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 8 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 21 Apr 2025, ended 3–2 with Al-Ittihad FC winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Ittihad FC and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 3.5 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Al-Ittihad FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Al-Ettifaq goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ittihad FC 65% and Al-Ettifaq 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 58% | Al-Ettifaq 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 1.61 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.954 / defence 0.795 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.232 / defence 1.071. League average goals — home 1.572 / away 1.415. Al-Ettifaq have an above-average attack strength of 1.232 — the away xG of 1.39 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Al-Ittihad FC's defence rating of 0.795 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 48 Al-Ittihad FC games / 48 Al-Ettifaq games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 43% | Draw 24% | Al-Ettifaq 33%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 2.33 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Ettifaq 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.61 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad FC at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.99 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad FC 30% | Al-Ettifaq 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Friday 16 Jan 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 43% | Draw 24% | Al-Ettifaq 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Al-Ittihad FC 1.61 / Al-Ettifaq 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.954 / def 0.795 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.232 / def 1.071 | league avg home 1.572 / away 1.415 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Al-Ettifaq xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ettifaq kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 16 January 2026 at King Abdullah Sports City.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Ittihad FC 0 - 1 Al-Ettifaq.
Where is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ettifaq is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad FC a 43% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 33% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ettifaq will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ettifaq?
Record (8 meetings): Al-Ittihad FC 5W | Draws 2 | Al-Ettifaq 1W.
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ettifaq in?
Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al-Ittihad FC's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Al-Ettifaq's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.61. Flip it around — Al-Ettifaq's attack (1.23x) against Al-Ittihad FC's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
43%
2.34
24%
4.12
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Total xG
2.99
1.39
Al-Ettifaq xG
2.34
43%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
25%
4.00
20%
4.98
Win to Nil
11%
9.37
7%
15.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 7.0 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.2 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.0 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.8 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 1.39 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 48 outings, Al-Ittihad FC have picked up 2.29 PPG on a 34W 8D 6L record — W-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Ittihad FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ettifaq's form line: 20W 12D 16L from 48 games, 1.50 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-L. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Ittihad FC are the form team by 0.79 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Ettifaq.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al-Ittihad FC have posted 2.52 PPG from 23 outings (19W 1D 3L).
On the road, Al-Ettifaq have gone 11W 7D 5L from 23 away games — 1.74 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Ittihad FC are averaging 2.23 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.42 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad FC have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Al-Ettifaq in 62%.
Last 48 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad FC have gone 34W 8D 6L in their last 48 games (2.29 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 20W 12D 16L in their last 48 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad FC at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Al-Ittihad FC's home record (2.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad FC at home: 2.52 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 1.74 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 14 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ettifaq won 0-5 on 10 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ettifaq — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Al-Ittihad FC
2
Draws
2
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ettifaq?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad FC have won 6, Al-Ettifaq have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
They last met on 14 May 2026, when Al-Ettifaq 1-3 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 26% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 56% for Al-Ittihad FC, 74% for Al-Ettifaq — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Al-Ittihad FC) and 56% (Al-Ettifaq). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad FC keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad FC home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad FC play Al-Ettifaq?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Al-Ittihad FC's games and 74% of Al-Ettifaq's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ettifaq usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Al-Ittihad FC's matches and 56% of Al-Ettifaq's.
Do Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ettifaq tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad FC have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Al-Ettifaq in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Ettifaq defy the odds to beat Al-Ittihad FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ettifaq beat Al-Ittihad FC 0-1 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 16, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 1.61 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.39 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al-Ittihad FC fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.95 / defence 0.80 against Al-Ettifaq attack 1.23 / defence 1.07, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 43% | Draw 24% | Al-Ettifaq 33%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Al-Ettifaq win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 58%, Al-Ettifaq 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 1.50. Form was overturned, with Al-Ettifaq winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.35 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.