Al-Ittihad FC 3-2 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ettifaq encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ettifaq meet at Prince Abdullah Al Faisal Sports City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Monday 21 April 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Ittihad FC's overall Pro League record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: D W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Prince Abdullah Al Faisal Sports City Stadium, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 9W 1D 0L this season (10 games, 2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Al-Ittihad FC are significantly better at Prince Abdullah Al Faisal Sports City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Ettifaq have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Ettifaq have posted 5W 4D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.90 PPG for Al-Ittihad FC against 1.80 for Al-Ettifaq. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Al-Ittihad FC register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Al-Ettifaq in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Al-Ittihad FC, who have won 4 of the last 7 meetings against Al-Ettifaq — a 2D 1W return for the visitors.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2024, ended 4–0 with Al-Ittihad FC winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Ittihad FC and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.3 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Al-Ittihad FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Al-Ettifaq goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad FC 66% versus Al-Ettifaq 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 64% | Al-Ettifaq 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 1.76 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.400 / defence 0.870 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.121 / defence 0.878. League average goals — home 1.427 / away 1.326. Al-Ittihad FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.400 — their λ of 1.76 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 62 Al-Ittihad FC games / 62 Al-Ettifaq games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 48% | Draw 24% | Al-Ettifaq 28%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 2.08 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Ettifaq 3.57. Al-Ittihad FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.76 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad FC at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.05 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad FC 70% | Al-Ettifaq 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Prince Abdullah Al Faisal Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 21 Apr 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 48% | Draw 24% | Al-Ettifaq 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Al-Ittihad FC 1.76 / Al-Ettifaq 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.400 / def 0.870 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.121 / def 0.878 | league avg home 1.427 / away 1.326 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Al-Ettifaq xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ettifaq kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 21 April 2025 at Prince Abdullah Al Faisal Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Ittihad FC 3 - 2 Al-Ettifaq.
Where is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah Al Faisal Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ettifaq is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad FC a 48% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 28% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ettifaq will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ettifaq?
Record (7 meetings): Al-Ittihad FC 4W | Draws 2 | Al-Ettifaq 1W.
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ettifaq in?
Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al-Ittihad FC's attacking strength (1.40x league average) is weighed against Al-Ettifaq's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.76. Flip it around — Al-Ettifaq's attack (1.12x) against Al-Ittihad FC's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
48%
2.09
24%
4.11
28%
3.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Total xG
3.05
1.29
Al-Ettifaq xG
2.09
48%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
3.60
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
17%
5.79
Win to Nil
13%
7.63
5%
20.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.1 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 10.8 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.5 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 1.29 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 62 outings, Al-Ittihad FC have picked up 1.92 PPG on a 36W 11D 15L record — D-W-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Al-Ettifaq's form line: 23W 19D 20L from 62 games, 1.42 PPG, last five W-L-D-D-W.
Put side by side, Al-Ittihad FC are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Ettifaq.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al-Ittihad FC have posted 2.23 PPG from 31 outings (22W 3D 6L).
On the road, Al-Ettifaq have gone 13W 11D 7L from 31 away games — 1.61 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Ittihad FC are averaging 2.03 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.26 scored and 1.16 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad FC have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 62 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad FC
Current Season
Al-Ettifaq
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad FC have gone 36W 11D 15L in their last 62 games (1.92 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 23W 19D 20L in their last 62 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad FC at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Al-Ittihad FC's home record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad FC at home: 2.23 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 1.61 PPG.
Have Al-Ittihad FC or Al-Ettifaq been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Al-Ettifaq in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 14 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ettifaq won 0-5 on 10 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ettifaq — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Al-Ittihad FC
2
Draws
2
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ettifaq?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad FC have won 6, Al-Ettifaq have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
They last met on 14 May 2026, when Al-Ettifaq 1-3 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ittihad FC 74%, Al-Ettifaq 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 74% (Al-Ittihad FC) and 39% (Al-Ettifaq). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq in 36%; Al-Ettifaq in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad FC home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad FC play Al-Ettifaq?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Al-Ittihad FC's games and 48% of Al-Ettifaq's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ettifaq usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Al-Ittihad FC's matches and 39% of Al-Ettifaq's.
Do Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ettifaq tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad FC have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Al-Ettifaq in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ittihad FC edge out Al-Ettifaq 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al-Ettifaq 3-2 at Prince Abdullah Al Faisal Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 1.76 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.29 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Al-Ittihad FC beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.40 / defence 0.87 against Al-Ettifaq attack 1.12 / defence 0.88, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 48% | Draw 24% | Al-Ettifaq 28%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 64%, Al-Ettifaq 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.42. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.