Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1-0 Al Shabab – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Hilal Saudi FC face Al Shabab.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Kingdom Arena plays host to Al-Hilal Saudi FC versus Al Shabab in Pro League, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Friday 31 October 2025 at 14:50 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: D D W W W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home record at Kingdom Arena: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Pro League appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al Shabab (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W D L D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al Shabab have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Shabab's form when playing away from home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's 2.40 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Al Shabab's 1.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al-Hilal Saudi FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Al Shabab in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 7 meetings, with Al Shabab managing just 1 victories and 2 draws shared.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.7 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 21 Apr 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Al-Hilal Saudi FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 95% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 58%.
Al Shabab goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 62% and Al Shabab 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 75% | Al Shabab 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.65 xG and Al Shabab 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.340 / defence 0.900 | Al Shabab attack 0.915 / defence 0.839. League average goals — home 1.466 / away 1.465. Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.340 — their λ of 1.65 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 40 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games / 40 Al Shabab games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 47% | Draw 27% | Al Shabab 27%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | Al Shabab 3.70. Al-Hilal Saudi FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Hilal Saudi FC if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.85 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60% | Al Shabab 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Shabab | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Kingdom Arena • Kick-off: Friday 31 Oct 2025, 14:50 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 47% | Draw 27% | Al Shabab 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.65 / Al Shabab 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.340 / def 0.900 | Al Shabab attack 0.915 / def 0.839 | league avg home 1.466 / away 1.465 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Al Shabab xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Shabab kick off?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Shabab kicked off at 14:50 on Friday 31 October 2025 at Kingdom Arena.
What was the final score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Shabab?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1 - 0 Al Shabab.
Where is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Shabab being played?
The match is being played at Kingdom Arena.
What competition is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Shabab part of?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Shabab is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Shabab?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 47% chance of winning, Al Shabab a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Shabab?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Shabab will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Shabab have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Shabab?
Record (7 meetings): Al-Hilal Saudi FC 4W | Draws 2 | Al Shabab 1W.
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Shabab in?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. Al Shabab (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack at 1.34x the league average against Al Shabab's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.65 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Shabab's attack (0.92x) against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
47%
2.15
27%
3.76
27%
3.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Total xG
2.85
1.21
Al Shabab xG
2.15
47%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
3.72
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
19%
5.20
Win to Nil
14%
7.19
5%
19.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.9 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.4 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.4 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Shabab?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Shabab expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 1.21 for Al Shabab, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Shabab?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Hilal Saudi FC come into this having played 40 games, going 27W 8D 5L for 2.22 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al Shabab sit at 1.65 PPG from 40 outings (19W 9D 12L), a run that reads W-D-L-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Shabab, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Al Shabab — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home form reads 14W 3D 2L across 19 games on their own ground, a 2.37 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Shabab have taken 1.58 points per game from 19 outings (8W 6D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are averaging 2.80 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Al Shabab are on 1.75 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Al Shabab in 65%.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Early Season
Al Shabab
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Shabab in coming into this match?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 27W 8D 5L in their last 40 games (2.22 PPG), while Al Shabab have gone 19W 9D 12L in their last 40 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home or Al Shabab away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home record (2.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home: 2.37 PPG; Al Shabab away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Al Shabab been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Al Shabab in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 4 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Al-Hilal Saudi FC go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 5-0 on 17 Feb 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al Shabab — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
2
Draws
1
Al Shabab
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Shabab?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 7, Al Shabab have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Shabab last play each other?
They last met on 4 September 2026, when Al Shabab 0-2 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Shabab?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 95% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 68% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 58%, Al Shabab 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 79% for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 58% for Al Shabab. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 68% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Al Shabab in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hilal Saudi FC home games / Al Shabab away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hilal Saudi FC play Al Shabab?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's games and 63% of Al Shabab's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Shabab usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 79% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's matches and 58% of Al Shabab's.
Do Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Shabab tend to score early?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have had a goal before half-time in 95% of their recent matches, Al Shabab in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Hilal Saudi FC edge out Al Shabab 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al Shabab 1-0 at Kingdom Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.65 xG and Al Shabab 1.21 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al Shabab landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.34 / defence 0.90 against Al Shabab attack 0.92 / defence 0.84, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hilal Saudi FC 47% | Draw 27% | Al Shabab 27%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 75%, Al Shabab 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al Shabab's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.22 PPG against 1.65. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.05 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line. Al Shabab (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.