Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Hilal Saudi FC host Al-Qadisiyah FC at Kingdom Arena in Pro League, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 22 April 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Hilal Saudi FC — All Games: 9W 0D 1L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.70 points per game. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Kingdom Arena, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Kingdom Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Qadisiyah FC have recorded 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's away record: 8W 1D 1L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 2.70 PPG versus Al-Qadisiyah FC's 2.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 1, Al-Qadisiyah FC 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 29 Jan 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Al-Hilal Saudi FC in-play and half-time data (43 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
Al-Qadisiyah FC in-play and half-time data (43 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 49% versus Al-Qadisiyah FC 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.13 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.303 / defence 0.853 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.465 / defence 0.622. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.432. Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.303 — their λ of 1.13 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence strength of 0.622 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al-Qadisiyah FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.465 — the away xG of 1.79 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 43 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games / 44 Al-Qadisiyah FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 22% | Draw 28% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 50%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 4.55 | Draw 3.57 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.00. Al-Qadisiyah FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Qadisiyah FC are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Qadisiyah FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. This conflicts with form data: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 30% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Kingdom Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 22 Apr 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 22% | Draw 28% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.13 / Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.79 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.303 / def 0.853 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.465 / def 0.622 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.432 • Poisson stance: Al-Qadisiyah FC (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.79
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC kick off?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Thursday 22 April 2027 at Kingdom Arena.
Where is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC being played?
The match is being played at Kingdom Arena.
What competition is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC part of?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 22% chance of winning, Al-Qadisiyah FC a 50% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al-Qadisiyah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Qadisiyah FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1W | Draws 2 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 1W.
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Qadisiyah FC in?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attacking strength (1.30x league average) is weighed against Al-Qadisiyah FC's defensive record (0.62x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.13. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence, projects 1.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Qadisiyah FC Win
22%
4.63
28%
3.58
50%
1.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Total xG
2.92
1.79
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
4.63
22%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
1.98
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
17%
6.00
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
4%
27.73
16%
6.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 9.6 | 8.6 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.9 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.2 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Qadisiyah FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 1.79 for Al-Qadisiyah FC, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent record stands at 33W 9D 1L from 43 games, a 2.51 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Al-Hilal Saudi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Qadisiyah FC, meanwhile, have gone 30W 9D 4L across 43 games — 2.30 PPG, with W-D-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Al-Qadisiyah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Hilal Saudi FC on 2.51 PPG, Al-Qadisiyah FC on 2.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have managed 17W 4D 1L from 22 games — 2.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's away record stands at 17W 2D 3L across 22 trips, a 2.41 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are averaging 2.60 goals scored and 0.79 conceded per game recently; Al-Qadisiyah FC are on 2.42 scored and 0.98 conceded. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's scoring rate against Al-Qadisiyah FC's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Qadisiyah FC in 63%.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Qadisiyah FC in coming into this match?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 33W 9D 1L in their last 43 games (2.51 PPG), while Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 30W 9D 4L in their last 43 (2.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home or Al-Qadisiyah FC away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home: 2.50 PPG; Al-Qadisiyah FC away: 2.41 PPG.
Have Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Al-Qadisiyah FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their recent games, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Qadisiyah FC runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 29 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's record when hosting Al-Qadisiyah FC specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
2
Draws
1
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 1, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Qadisiyah FC last play each other?
They last met on 29 January 2026, when Al-Qadisiyah FC 2-2 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 73% of the time.
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 46%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 68% for Al-Qadisiyah FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Al-Qadisiyah FC in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hilal Saudi FC home games / Al-Qadisiyah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hilal Saudi FC play Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent matches and 64% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's matches and 68% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's.
Do Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Qadisiyah FC tend to score early?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.