Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Hilal Saudi FC face Al-Fayha.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fayha meet at Kingdom Arena in Pro League, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 11 February 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's overall Pro League record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Kingdom Arena this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Kingdom Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Al-Fayha have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: D W D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Al-Fayha have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Fayha have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.90 in Al-Hilal Saudi FC's favour (2.50 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have had the better of this match-up — 8 wins from 10 meetings, with Al-Fayha managing just 1 victories and 1 draws shared.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2026, ended 3–0 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.
The historical record gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC a meaningful edge here — 8 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Hilal Saudi FC — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 95% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 66% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
Al-Fayha — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 49% versus Al-Fayha 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 61% | Al-Fayha 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.65 xG and Al-Fayha 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.308 / defence 0.940 | Al-Fayha attack 0.681 / defence 0.925. League average goals — home 1.366 / away 1.337. Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.308 — their λ of 1.65 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 41 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games / 41 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 53% | Draw 31% | Al-Fayha 16%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.89 | Draw 3.23 | Al-Fayha 6.25. Al-Hilal Saudi FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Hilal Saudi FC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 30% | Al-Fayha 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Kingdom Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 11 Feb 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 53% | Draw 31% | Al-Fayha 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.65 / Al-Fayha 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.308 / def 0.940 | Al-Fayha attack 0.681 / def 0.925 | league avg home 1.366 / away 1.337 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Al-Fayha xG
50%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Thursday 11 February 2027 at Kingdom Arena.
Where is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at Kingdom Arena.
What competition is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha part of?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 53% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 16% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fayha?
Record (10 meetings): Al-Hilal Saudi FC 8W | Draws 1 | Al-Fayha 1W.
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fayha in?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Al-Fayha (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack at 1.31x the league average against Al-Fayha's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.65 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Fayha's attack (0.68x) against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 2-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
53%
1.89
31%
3.22
16%
6.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Total xG
2.51
0.86
Al-Fayha xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
6.25
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
42%
2.35
19%
5.22
Win to Nil
22%
4.45
3%
32.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.4 | 11.5 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.5 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 0.86 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Hilal Saudi FC come into this having played 41 games, going 31W 9D 1L for 2.49 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al-Fayha sit at 1.07 PPG from 41 outings (11W 11D 19L), a run that reads D-W-D-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Fayha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.42 PPG clear of Al-Fayha — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home form reads 15W 4D 1L across 20 games on their own ground, a 2.45 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Fayha have taken 0.65 points per game from 20 outings (3W 4D 13L). That's a step down from their 1.07 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Fayha's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are averaging 2.63 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 1.17 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Early Season
Al-Fayha
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 31W 9D 1L in their last 41 games (2.49 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 11W 11D 19L in their last 41 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home or Al-Fayha away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home record (2.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home: 2.45 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 0.65 PPG.
Have Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Al-Fayha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their recent games, Al-Fayha in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 20 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 3-0 on 18 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Al-Fayha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
1
Draws
1
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fayha?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 8, Al-Fayha have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 20 August 2026, when Al-Fayha 0-3 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fayha?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 95% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 45%, Al-Fayha 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 60% for Al-Fayha. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Al-Fayha in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hilal Saudi FC home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hilal Saudi FC play Al-Fayha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent matches and 50% of Al-Fayha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's matches and 60% of Al-Fayha's.
Do Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fayha tend to score early?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have had a goal before half-time in 95% of their recent matches, Al-Fayha in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.