Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Al-Ahli Jeddah defy the odds to beat Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2-3 at Kingdom Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.92 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.11 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Al-Ahli Jeddah outscored their 1.11 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.85 / defence 0.77 against Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.05 / defence 0.69, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Hilal Saudi FC 56% | Draw 22% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 22%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Al-Ahli Jeddah win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 75%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.62 PPG against 1.95. Form was overturned, with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.21 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.89 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights