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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as NEOM edge out Al-Hazm 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

NEOM beat Al-Hazm 1-2 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hazm 0.98 xG and NEOM 1.84 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hazm attack 0.63 / defence 1.23 against NEOM attack 1.01 / defence 1.07, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Hazm 20% | Draw 23% | NEOM 57%, with NEOM to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hazm 46%, NEOM 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Hazm's trading profile (11 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

NEOM's trading profile (11 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 82% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Hazm 1.18 PPG, NEOM 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the NEOM win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights