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Al-Hazm cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al Taawon.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Hazm beat Al Taawon 2-0 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hazm 1.16 xG and Al Taawon 2.15 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al-Hazm beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al Taawon landed 2.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hazm attack 0.87 / defence 1.21 against Al Taawon attack 1.26 / defence 0.87, drawn from 33/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Hazm 19% | Draw 22% | Al Taawon 59%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Al-Hazm win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hazm 61%, Al Taawon 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Hazm's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Al Taawon's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Al Taawon arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.18. Form was overturned, with Al-Hazm winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Hazm (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line. Al Taawon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights