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Dominant Al Shabab run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Al-Hazm.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Shabab beat Al-Hazm 0-4 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hazm 1.16 xG and Al Shabab 1.38 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Al-Hazm fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Al Shabab outscored their 1.38 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hazm attack 0.84 / defence 1.52 against Al Shabab attack 0.64 / defence 0.89, drawn from 17/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Hazm 30% | Draw 29% | Al Shabab 41%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hazm 65%, Al Shabab 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Hazm's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Al Shabab's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Hazm arrived the stronger side — 1.18 PPG against 0.76. Form was overturned, with Al Shabab winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Hazm (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Shabab (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights