Al-Hazm 0-4 Al Shabab – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Shabab at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 19 as Al-Hazm welcome Al Shabab to Al-Hazem Club Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 29 January 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Hazm stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hazm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hazm's home record at Al-Hazem Club Stadium: 2W 1D 5L from 8 Pro League appearances (0.88 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.88 lags behind their overall 1.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Al-Hazem Club Stadium this season.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Shabab have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Shabab have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Al-Hazm carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Al Shabab have the better historical record — 5 wins from 5 previous contests against 0 for Al-Hazm.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2025, ended 0–1 with Al Shabab winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al Shabab have won 5 of 5 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Al-Hazm trading profile (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Al Shabab trading profile (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 12% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hazm 65% versus Al Shabab 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hazm 65% | Al Shabab 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 1.16 xG and Al Shabab 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 0.841 / defence 1.516 | Al Shabab attack 0.641 / defence 0.891. League average goals — home 1.545 / away 1.423. Data: 17 Al-Hazm games / 51 Al Shabab games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 30% | Draw 29% | Al Shabab 41%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 3.33 | Draw 3.45 | Al Shabab 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Al Shabab lead the H2H ledger, but Al-Hazm carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Al Shabab as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al-Hazm (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Shabab offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Al-Hazm 62% | Al Shabab 30%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Al-Hazem Club Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 29 Jan 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hazm 30% | Draw 29% | Al Shabab 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Al-Hazm 1.16 / Al Shabab 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hazm attack 0.841 / def 1.516 | Al Shabab attack 0.641 / def 0.891 | league avg home 1.545 / away 1.423 • Poisson stance: Al Shabab (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Al-Hazm xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Al Shabab xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab kick off?
Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab kicked off at 17:30 on Thursday 29 January 2026 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab?
Al-Hazm 0 - 4 Al Shabab.
Where is Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab being played?
The match is being played at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab part of?
Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hazm a 30% chance of winning, Al Shabab a 41% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Al Shabab the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Al-Hazm and Al Shabab will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al Shabab?
Record (5 meetings): Al-Hazm 0W | Draws 0 | Al Shabab 5W.
What form are Al-Hazm and Al Shabab in?
Al-Hazm (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. Al Shabab (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Hazm's attack rating (0.84) and Al Shabab's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Shabab's attack versus Al-Hazm's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
30%
3.30
29%
3.47
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Al-Hazm xG
Total xG
2.54
1.38
Al Shabab xG
3.30
30%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
8%
13.17
13%
7.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 10.9 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.6 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.3 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Al-Hazm and Al Shabab expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Al-Hazm and 1.38 for Al Shabab, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 17 outings, Al-Hazm have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 5W 5D 7L record — L-W-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Hazm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Shabab's form line: 2W 7D 8L from 17 games, 0.76 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-D. The sample for Al Shabab is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Hazm are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Shabab.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Hazm have posted 0.88 PPG from 8 outings (2W 1D 5L).
On the road, Al Shabab have gone 0W 3D 5L from 8 away games — 0.38 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hazm come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Hazm are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Al Shabab are on 0.82 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hazm have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 17 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hazm
Blended
Al Shabab
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hazm and Al Shabab in coming into this match?
Al-Hazm have gone 5W 5D 7L in their last 17 games (1.18 PPG), while Al Shabab have gone 2W 7D 8L in their last 17 (0.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hazm at home or Al Shabab away?
Al-Hazm's home record (0.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hazm at home: 0.88 PPG; Al Shabab away: 0.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Jan 2026, when Al Shabab won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Hazm's record when hosting Al Shabab specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
0
Al-Hazm
1
Draws
6
Al Shabab
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al Shabab?
From 7 meetings on record, Al-Hazm have won 0, Al Shabab have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hazm and Al Shabab last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Al-Hazm 1-1 Al Shabab.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hazm and Al Shabab?
Al Shabab have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Hazm see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hazm 62%, Al Shabab 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Al-Hazm) and 12% (Al Shabab).
On the defensive side: Al-Hazm have failed to score in 38% of games; Al Shabab in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hazm home games / Al Shabab away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hazm play Al Shabab?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Al-Hazm's recent matches and 38% of Al Shabab's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Al-Hazm's recent games and 12% of Al Shabab's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Hazm and Al Shabab tend to score early?
Al-Hazm have had a goal before half-time in 38% of their recent matches, Al Shabab in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al Shabab run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Al-Hazm.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Shabab beat Al-Hazm 0-4 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hazm 1.16 xG and Al Shabab 1.38 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Al-Hazm fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Al Shabab outscored their 1.38 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hazm attack 0.84 / defence 1.52 against Al Shabab attack 0.64 / defence 0.89, drawn from 17/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hazm 30% | Draw 29% | Al Shabab 41%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hazm 65%, Al Shabab 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hazm's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al Shabab's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hazm arrived the stronger side — 1.18 PPG against 0.76. Form was overturned, with Al Shabab winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Hazm (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Shabab (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.