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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Al-Hazm edge out Al Riyadh 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Hazm beat Al Riyadh 2-1 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hazm 1.80 xG and Al Riyadh 1.47 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hazm attack 0.92 / defence 1.20 against Al Riyadh attack 0.88 / defence 1.26, drawn from 28/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Hazm 46% | Draw 23% | Al Riyadh 32%, with Al-Hazm to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hazm 61%, Al Riyadh 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Hazm's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Al Riyadh's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Hazm 1.21 PPG, Al Riyadh 0.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Hazm win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Hazm (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights