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Dominant Al-Qadisiyah FC run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Al-Hazm.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Qadisiyah FC beat Al-Hazm 1-5 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hazm 1.07 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.19 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Al-Qadisiyah FC outscored their 2.19 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hazm attack 0.78 / defence 1.34 against Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.15 / defence 0.88, drawn from 14/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Hazm 17% | Draw 20% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 63%, with Al-Qadisiyah FC to win its most likely call at 63%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hazm 57%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Hazm's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Qadisiyah FC arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 1.14. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Hazm (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Qadisiyah FC (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights