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Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Hazm vs Al-Qadisiyah FC encounter.

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Full Analysis

Al-Hazem Club Stadium plays host to Al-Hazm versus Al-Qadisiyah FC in Pro League, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Sunday 18 January 2026 at 15:15 UTC.

Form

Al-Hazm (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hazm, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Hazm's form when playing at home: 1W 1D 4L across 6 games at Al-Hazem Club Stadium this term (0.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.67 lags behind their overall 1.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Al-Hazem Club Stadium this season.

Al-Qadisiyah FC have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Qadisiyah FC's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Al-Qadisiyah FC are 0.60 PPG clear of Al-Hazm in recent Pro League fixtures (2.00 vs 1.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

Trading Data

Al-Hazm goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.

Al-Qadisiyah FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hazm 57% versus Al-Qadisiyah FC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hazm 57% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 71%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 1.07 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 0.778 / defence 1.342 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.153 / defence 0.884. League average goals — home 1.550 / away 1.417. Al-Hazm's attack strength of 0.778 is below the league average — the 1.07 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 14 Al-Hazm games / 48 Al-Qadisiyah FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 17% | Draw 20% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 63%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 5.88 | Draw 5.00 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.59. The model has a clear lean to Al-Qadisiyah FC (63%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.26 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hazm 50% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 60% BTTS from recent games.

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