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Shock result as Al-Hazm defy the odds to beat Al Okhdood 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Hazm beat Al Okhdood 2-1 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hazm 1.38 xG and Al Okhdood 1.53 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hazm attack 0.78 / defence 1.76 against Al Okhdood attack 0.65 / defence 1.21, drawn from 20/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Hazm 34% | Draw 26% | Al Okhdood 41%, with Al Okhdood to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Al-Hazm win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hazm 60%, Al Okhdood 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Hazm's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Al Okhdood's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Hazm arrived the stronger side — 1.05 PPG against 0.50. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Hazm (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.44 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights