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Prediction vindicated as Al-Hazm edge out Al Najma 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Hazm beat Al Najma 3-2 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hazm 1.23 xG and Al Najma 1.13 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Al-Hazm beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al Najma outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hazm attack 0.65 / defence 1.26 against Al Najma attack 0.61 / defence 1.29, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Hazm 38% | Draw 28% | Al Najma 34%, with Al-Hazm to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hazm 54%, Al Najma 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Hazm's trading profile (13 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Al Najma's trading profile (13 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Hazm arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.15. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Hazm (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.40 average — above their attacking norm. Al Najma (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.60 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights