🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Al-Hazm at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Hazm vs Al Najma encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 15 as Al-Hazm welcome Al Najma to Al-Hazem Club Stadium. Kick-off is set for Monday 12 January 2026 at 15:10 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Hazm have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hazm, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Hazm's form when playing at home: 0W 1D 4L across 5 games at Al-Hazem Club Stadium this term (0.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.20 lags behind their overall 1.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Al-Hazem Club Stadium this season.

Al Najma — All Games: 0W 2D 8L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.20 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Najma, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al Najma's away record: 0W 1D 6L from 7 road trips in Pro League this season (0.14 PPG). Away from home they average 0.71 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Al-Hazm are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.10 vs 0.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

In-Play Data

Al-Hazm trading profile (13 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.

Al Najma trading profile (13 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Hazm 54% and Al Najma 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hazm 54% | Al Najma 69%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 1.23 xG and Al Najma 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 0.645 / defence 1.257 | Al Najma attack 0.615 / defence 1.290. League average goals — home 1.474 / away 1.461. Al-Hazm's attack strength of 0.645 is below the league average — the 1.23 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al Najma bring a strong defensive rating of 1.290 — this is suppressing Al-Hazm's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Al-Hazm games / 13 Al Najma games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 38% | Draw 28% | Al Najma 34%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | Al Najma 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Hazm as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Hazm offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.36 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Al-Hazm 40% | Al Najma 71%.

The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights