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Shock result as Al-Hazm defy the odds to beat Al Kholood 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Hazm beat Al Kholood 2-1 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hazm 1.38 xG and Al Kholood 2.26 xG, a combined 3.64. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Al Kholood landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hazm attack 0.90 / defence 1.41 against Al Kholood attack 1.12 / defence 1.02, drawn from 25/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Hazm 22% | Draw 21% | Al Kholood 57%, with Al Kholood to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Al-Hazm win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hazm 64%, Al Kholood 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Hazm's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Al Kholood's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Hazm 1.12 PPG, Al Kholood 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Hazm win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Hazm (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights