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Dominant Al-Hilal Saudi FC run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Al-Hazm.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al-Hazm 0-3 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hazm 1.24 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.33 xG, a combined 3.57. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Al-Hazm fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hazm attack 0.95 / defence 1.15 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.44 / defence 0.86, drawn from 30/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Hazm 19% | Draw 19% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 62%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hazm 60%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Hazm's trading profile (30 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (30 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.47 PPG against 1.27. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Hazm (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights