Al-Hazm 0-3 Al-Hilal Saudi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC (62%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Hazm face Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Al-Hilal Saudi FC travel to Al-Hazem Club Stadium to take on Al-Hazm. The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 May 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Hazm — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Al-Hazm at Al-Hazem Club Stadium this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Al-Hazm are significantly better at Al-Hazem Club Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC stand at 7W 3D 0L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC away from home this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 away games — 2.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.70 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al-Hilal Saudi FC — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 5 encounters against Al-Hazm's 0 victories.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Jan 2026, ended 0–3 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 4.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Al-Hazm in-play tendencies (30 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC in-play tendencies (30 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hazm 63% versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hazm 60% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 1.24 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 0.947 / defence 1.153 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.437 / defence 0.863. League average goals — home 1.519 / away 1.407. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.437 — the away xG of 2.33 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 30 Al-Hazm games / 63 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 19% | Draw 19% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 62%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 5.26 | Draw 5.26 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.61. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (62%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.57. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.57 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.24 / 2.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.57 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hazm 80% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hazm vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Al-Hazem Club Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hazm 19% | Draw 19% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 62% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 64% | xG Al-Hazm 1.24 / Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.33 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hazm attack 0.947 / def 1.153 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.437 / def 0.863 | league avg home 1.519 / away 1.407 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Al-Hazm xG
Expected Goals
2.33
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
64%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hazm vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kick off?
Al-Hazm vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 2 May 2026 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Hazm vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Hazm 0 - 3 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Where is Al-Hazm vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC being played?
The match is being played at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hazm vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC part of?
Al-Hazm vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hazm vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hazm a 19% chance of winning, Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 62% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hazm vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Al-Hazm and Al-Hilal Saudi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hazm vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Record (5 meetings): Al-Hazm 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 4W.
What form are Al-Hazm and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in?
Al-Hazm (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al-Hazm's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack versus Al-Hazm's defence, projects 2.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-2, at 9.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.2%), 0-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
19%
5.24
19%
5.17
62%
1.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.1%
Draw
0 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Al-Hazm xG
Total xG
3.57
2.33
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
5.24
19%
Home win
5.17
19%
Draw
1.62
62%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.80
Clean Sheet
10%
10.29
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
2%
53.92
18%
5.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 6.6 | 7.6 | 5.9 | 3.5 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 3.5 | 8.1 | 9.5 | 7.4 | 4.3 | 2.0 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 5.0 | 5.9 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hazm vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Al-Hazm and Al-Hilal Saudi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Al-Hazm and 2.33 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, a combined total of 3.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hazm vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Hazm's recent record stands at 10W 8D 12L from 30 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-D in the last five.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC, meanwhile, have gone 22W 8D 0L across 30 games — 2.47 PPG, with W-W-D-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC by 1.20 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Hazm heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al-Hazm have managed 7W 1D 5L from 13 games — 1.69 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.27 PPG overall — Al-Hazm are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record stands at 9W 4D 0L across 13 trips, a 2.38 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Hazm are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Al-Hilal Saudi FC are on 2.60 scored and 0.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hazm have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hazm
Current Season
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hazm and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in coming into this match?
Al-Hazm have gone 10W 8D 12L in their last 30 games (1.27 PPG), while Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 22W 8D 0L in their last 30 (2.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hazm at home or Al-Hilal Saudi FC away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record (2.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hazm at home: 1.69 PPG; Al-Hilal Saudi FC away: 2.38 PPG.
Have Al-Hazm or Al-Hilal Saudi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hazm have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 19 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Nov 2023, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 0-9 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Hazm's record when hosting Al-Hilal Saudi FC specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
0
Al-Hazm
1
Draws
6
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
From 7 meetings on record, Al-Hazm have won 0, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hazm and Al-Hilal Saudi FC last play each other?
They last met on 19 October 2026, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1-0 Al-Hazm.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hazm and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Hazm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al-Hazm at 77%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for Al-Hazm and 62% for Al-Hilal Saudi FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hazm home games / Al-Hilal Saudi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hazm play Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of Al-Hazm's games and 62% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Hazm vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of Al-Hazm's matches and 62% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's.
Do Al-Hazm and Al-Hilal Saudi FC tend to score early?
Al-Hazm have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Hilal Saudi FC run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Al-Hazm.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al-Hazm 0-3 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hazm 1.24 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.33 xG, a combined 3.57. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Al-Hazm fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hazm attack 0.95 / defence 1.15 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.44 / defence 0.86, drawn from 30/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hazm 19% | Draw 19% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 62%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hazm 60%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hazm's trading profile (30 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (30 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.47 PPG against 1.27. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Hazm (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.