Al-Hazm 0-0 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Fateh at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Hazm vs Al-Fateh encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Fateh make the trip to Al-Hazem Club Stadium to face Al-Hazm in Pro League, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Saturday 20 September 2025 at 16:40 UTC.
Form
Al-Hazm (all games): 0W 1D 1L across 2 Pro League fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Al-Hazm have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Fateh's overall Pro League record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W W L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al-Fateh have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Al-Fateh have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Al-Fateh arrive in superior form — a 1.10 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al-Hazm lead 2W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game from 4 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 May 2024, ended 1–2 with Al-Fateh winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 1.64 xG and Al-Fateh 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 0.861 / defence 1.150 | Al-Fateh attack 1.068 / defence 1.213. League average goals — home 1.571 / away 1.433. Al-Fateh bring a strong defensive rating of 1.213 — this is suppressing Al-Hazm's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 2 Al-Hazm games / 36 Al-Fateh games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 36% | Draw 23% | Al-Fateh 41%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 2.78 | Draw 4.35 | Al-Fateh 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.40. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.40 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.64 / 1.76) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
Form averages suggest only ~1.7 goals/game but Poisson projects Over 2.5 at 66% — underlying attack/defence strengths imply more goals than surface form shows.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Fateh at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Fateh if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.40 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hazm vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Al-Hazem Club Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Sep 2025, 16:40 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hazm 36% | Draw 23% | Al-Fateh 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 67% | xG Al-Hazm 1.64 / Al-Fateh 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hazm attack 0.861 / def 1.150 | Al-Fateh attack 1.068 / def 1.213 | league avg home 1.571 / away 1.433 • Poisson stance: Al-Fateh (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Al-Hazm xG
Expected Goals
1.76
Al-Fateh xG
67%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hazm vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al-Hazm vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 16:40 on Saturday 20 September 2025 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Hazm vs Al-Fateh?
Al-Hazm 0 - 0 Al-Fateh.
Where is Al-Hazm vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hazm vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al-Hazm vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hazm vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hazm a 36% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 41% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al-Fateh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hazm vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Al-Hazm and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hazm vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al-Fateh?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Hazm 2W | Draws 0 | Al-Fateh 2W.
What form are Al-Hazm and Al-Fateh in?
Al-Hazm (all comps): 0W-1D-1L in 2 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L. Al-Fateh (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al-Hazm's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Al-Fateh's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.64. Flip it around — Al-Fateh's attack (1.07x) against Al-Hazm's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.76.
The sample (2/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fateh Win
36%
2.76
23%
4.42
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Al-Hazm xG
Total xG
3.40
1.76
Al-Fateh xG
2.76
36%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.01
Clean Sheet
17%
5.81
19%
5.16
Win to Nil
6%
16.05
8%
12.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 5.9 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 9.6 | 8.5 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.9 | 7.0 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hazm vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Al-Hazm and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Al-Hazm and 1.76 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 3.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hazm vs Al-Fateh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 2 outings, Al-Hazm have picked up 0.50 PPG on a 0W 1D 1L record — D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al-Hazm, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Fateh's form line: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games, 0.00 PPG, last five L-L. It's still early in the season for Al-Fateh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Al-Hazm are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Fateh.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Hazm are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.50 scored and 3.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fateh in 100%.
Last 2 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hazm
Early Season
Al-Fateh
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hazm and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al-Hazm have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 games (0.50 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Hazm have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al-Fateh — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Al-Hazm
2
Draws
2
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al-Fateh?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Hazm have won 2, Al-Fateh have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hazm and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Al-Fateh 1-1 Al-Hazm.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hazm home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hazm play Al-Fateh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Al-Hazm's games and 100% of Al-Fateh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Hazm vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Al-Hazm's recent games and 100% of Al-Fateh's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Hazm and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
Al-Hazm have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al-Hazm's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Al-Hazem Club Stadium, Regular Season - 3, as Al-Hazm and Al-Fateh drew 0-0 in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hazm 1.64 xG and Al-Fateh 1.76 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al-Hazm fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Al-Fateh landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hazm attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Al-Fateh attack 1.07 / defence 1.21, drawn from 2/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hazm 36% | Draw 23% | Al-Fateh 41%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hazm 0%, Al-Fateh 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hazm arrived the stronger side — 0.50 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Hazm conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Fateh managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.