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Al-Hazm cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al-Ettifaq.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Hazm beat Al-Ettifaq 3-1 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hazm 1.49 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.97 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Al-Hazm beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Ettifaq landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hazm attack 0.82 / defence 1.51 against Al-Ettifaq attack 0.94 / defence 1.23, drawn from 23/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Hazm 29% | Draw 23% | Al-Ettifaq 48%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Al-Hazm win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hazm 61%, Al-Ettifaq 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Hazm's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Ettifaq arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.09. Form was overturned, with Al-Hazm winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Hazm (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.18 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights