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Al-Ahli Jeddah cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Al-Hazm.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al-Hazm 0-2 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hazm 0.80 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.14 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Al-Hazm fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Al-Ahli Jeddah outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hazm attack 0.65 / defence 0.93 against Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.90 / defence 0.80, drawn from 3/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Hazm 26% | Draw 31% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 43%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 17% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hazm 0%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Hazm's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 67% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.67. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Hazm shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ahli Jeddah conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights