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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson model favours Al-Ahli Jeddah (43%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Hazm face Al-Ahli Jeddah.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Al-Hazm and Al-Ahli Jeddah meet at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Friday 26 September 2025 at 16:35 UTC.

Current Form

Al-Hazm's overall Pro League record this term: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games (0.67 PPG). Last five: D L D. They are averaging 0.33 goals per game and conceding 0.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Al-Hazm have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Al-Ahli Jeddah (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: L W W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Al-Ahli Jeddah have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 7W 1D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.

On a straight form reading, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the stronger side — 1.33 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.67). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

Head-to-Head

Al-Ahli Jeddah hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 4 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Dec 2023, ended 0–4 with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading & In-Play

Al-Hazm — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 0% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.

Al-Ahli Jeddah — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.

The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Al-Hazm 33% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 33%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al-Hazm 0% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 33%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 0.80 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 0.653 / defence 0.928 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.895 / defence 0.802. League average goals — home 1.526 / away 1.367. Al-Hazm's attack strength of 0.653 is below the league average — the 0.80 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 3 Al-Hazm games / 37 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 26% | Draw 31% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 43%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 3.85 | Draw 3.23 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 1.94 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hazm 33% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 50% BTTS from recent games.

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