Al-Hazm 0-2 Al-Ahli Jeddah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Ahli Jeddah (43%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Hazm face Al-Ahli Jeddah.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Hazm and Al-Ahli Jeddah meet at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Friday 26 September 2025 at 16:35 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Hazm's overall Pro League record this term: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games (0.67 PPG). Last five: D L D. They are averaging 0.33 goals per game and conceding 0.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Al-Hazm have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: L W W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Al-Ahli Jeddah have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 7W 1D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
On a straight form reading, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the stronger side — 1.33 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.67). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Al-Ahli Jeddah hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 4 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Dec 2023, ended 0–4 with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Hazm — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 0% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
Al-Ahli Jeddah — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Al-Hazm 33% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 33%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al-Hazm 0% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 0.80 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 0.653 / defence 0.928 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.895 / defence 0.802. League average goals — home 1.526 / away 1.367. Al-Hazm's attack strength of 0.653 is below the league average — the 0.80 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 3 Al-Hazm games / 37 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 26% | Draw 31% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 43%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 3.85 | Draw 3.23 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.94 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hazm 33% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hazm vs Al-Ahli Jeddah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 26 Sep 2025, 16:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hazm 26% | Draw 31% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 37% | xG Al-Hazm 0.80 / Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hazm attack 0.653 / def 0.928 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.895 / def 0.802 | league avg home 1.526 / away 1.367 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
Al-Hazm xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
37%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hazm vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kick off?
Al-Hazm vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kicked off at 16:35 on Friday 26 September 2025 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Hazm vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Hazm 0 - 2 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Where is Al-Hazm vs Al-Ahli Jeddah being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hazm vs Al-Ahli Jeddah part of?
Al-Hazm vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hazm vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hazm a 26% chance of winning, Al-Ahli Jeddah a 43% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hazm vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Al-Hazm and Al-Ahli Jeddah will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hazm vs Al-Ahli Jeddah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Hazm 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 3W.
What form are Al-Hazm and Al-Ahli Jeddah in?
Al-Hazm (all comps): 0W-2D-1L in 3 | 0.67 PPG | GF 0.33 / GA 0.67 | L5 D-L-D. Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al-Hazm's attack at 0.65x the league average against Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence at 0.80x — combine the two and it projects 0.80 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack (0.90x) against Al-Hazm's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 3/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 0-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
26%
3.89
31%
3.24
43%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
Al-Hazm xG
Total xG
1.94
1.14
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
3.89
26%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
2.30
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.68
63%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
45%
2.23
Win to Nil
8%
12.09
20%
5.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.4 | 16.4 | 9.3 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.1 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hazm vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are Al-Hazm and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for Al-Hazm and 1.14 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hazm vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Hazm's recent record stands at 0W 2D 1L from 3 games, a 0.67 PPG return, with D-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Hazm, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Ahli Jeddah, meanwhile, have gone 1W 2D 0L across 3 games — 1.67 PPG, with W-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ahli Jeddah by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Hazm heading into this one.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Hazm are averaging 0.33 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Al-Ahli Jeddah are on 1.33 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 67% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hazm
Early Season
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hazm and Al-Ahli Jeddah in coming into this match?
Al-Hazm have gone 0W 2D 1L in their last 3 games (0.67 PPG), while Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 1W 2D 0L in their last 3 (1.67 PPG).
Have Al-Hazm or Al-Ahli Jeddah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hazm have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 67%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 5 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Al-Ahli Jeddah have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ahli Jeddah won 0-4 on 22 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Hazm have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ahli Jeddah — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Al-Hazm
1
Draws
5
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Hazm have won 0, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hazm and Al-Ahli Jeddah last play each other?
They last met on 5 February 2026, when Al-Ahli Jeddah 2-0 Al-Hazm.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hazm and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Hazm tend to start slowly — only 0% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Al-Hazm) and 33% (Al-Ahli Jeddah) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Al-Hazm and 33% for Al-Ahli Jeddah.
On the defensive side: Al-Hazm keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al-Ahli Jeddah in 67%; Al-Hazm have failed to score in 67% of games; Al-Ahli Jeddah in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hazm home games / Al-Ahli Jeddah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hazm play Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Al-Hazm's recent matches and 33% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Hazm vs Al-Ahli Jeddah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Al-Hazm's recent games and 33% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Hazm and Al-Ahli Jeddah tend to score early?
Al-Hazm have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ahli Jeddah cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Al-Hazm.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al-Hazm 0-2 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hazm 0.80 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.14 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Al-Hazm fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Al-Ahli Jeddah outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hazm attack 0.65 / defence 0.93 against Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.90 / defence 0.80, drawn from 3/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hazm 26% | Draw 31% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 43%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 17% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hazm 0%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hazm's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 67% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.67. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Hazm shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ahli Jeddah conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.