Al-Fayha vs NEOM – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates NEOM at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fayha vs NEOM encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Fayha host NEOM at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 14 December 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Fayha — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Fayha have posted 3W 3D 4L at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, NEOM have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for NEOM, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NEOM away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. NEOM are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Al-Fayha, 2 for NEOM and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2026, ended 1–2 with NEOM winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Al-Fayha in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
NEOM in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 56% versus NEOM 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 56% | NEOM 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.27 xG and NEOM 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 1.110 / defence 1.131 | NEOM attack 0.883 / defence 0.760. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.476. NEOM's defence strength of 0.760 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 46 Al-Fayha games / 46 NEOM games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 30% | Draw 30% | NEOM 40%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 3.33 | Draw 3.33 | NEOM 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is NEOM at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on NEOM offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fayha 80% | NEOM 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs NEOM | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 14 Dec 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 30% | Draw 30% | NEOM 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 58% | xG Al-Fayha 1.27 / NEOM 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 1.110 / def 1.131 | NEOM attack 0.883 / def 0.760 | league avg home 1.505 / away 1.476 • Poisson stance: NEOM (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
1.47
NEOM xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fayha vs NEOM kick off?
Al-Fayha vs NEOM is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Monday 14 December 2026 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
Where is Al-Fayha vs NEOM being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs NEOM part of?
Al-Fayha vs NEOM is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs NEOM?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 30% chance of winning, NEOM a 40% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making NEOM the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs NEOM?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Al-Fayha and NEOM will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fayha vs NEOM have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and NEOM?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Fayha 0W | Draws 1 | NEOM 2W.
What form are Al-Fayha and NEOM in?
Al-Fayha (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-D-W. NEOM (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al-Fayha's attack at 1.11x the league average against NEOM's defence at 0.76x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, NEOM's attack versus Al-Fayha's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
NEOM Win
30%
3.30
30%
3.32
40%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
2.74
1.47
NEOM xG
3.30
30%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
2.53
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
23%
4.37
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
7%
14.42
11%
8.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 9.5 | 7.0 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.0 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.6 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs NEOM?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and NEOM expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 1.47 for NEOM, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs NEOM?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Fayha come into this having played 46 games, going 12W 13D 21L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-W. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, NEOM sit at 1.46 PPG from 46 outings (19W 10D 17L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for NEOM is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Fayha on 1.07 PPG, NEOM on 1.46. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Fayha's home form reads 8W 8D 7L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.39 PPG return.
Away from home, NEOM have taken 1.43 points per game from 23 outings (9W 6D 8L).
The Goals Picture
Al-Fayha are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; NEOM are on 1.33 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Blended
NEOM
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fayha and NEOM in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 12W 13D 21L in their last 46 games (1.07 PPG), while NEOM have gone 19W 10D 17L in their last 46 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or NEOM away?
NEOM's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 1.39 PPG; NEOM away: 1.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Fayha and NEOM runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 14 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
NEOM go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Al-Fayha
1
Draws
2
NEOM
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and NEOM?
From 3 meetings on record, Al-Fayha have won 0, NEOM have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and NEOM last play each other?
They last met on 14 August 2026, when NEOM 2-1 Al-Fayha.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fayha and NEOM?
NEOM have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
NEOM are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fayha 61%, NEOM 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Al-Fayha) and 39% (NEOM).
On the defensive side: NEOM in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / NEOM away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fayha play NEOM?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Al-Fayha's games and 56% of NEOM's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Fayha vs NEOM usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Al-Fayha's recent games and 39% of NEOM's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fayha and NEOM tend to score early?
Al-Fayha have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, NEOM in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.