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Stalemate at Al-Fayha's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 23, as Al-Fayha and Al Wehda Club drew 0-0 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 1.16 xG and Al Wehda Club 0.81 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al-Fayha fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Al Wehda Club landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.61 / defence 0.76 against Al Wehda Club attack 0.79 / defence 1.26, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 44% | Draw 30% | Al Wehda Club 26%, with Al-Fayha to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 50%, Al Wehda Club 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Fayha's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Al Wehda Club's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Fayha 1.16 PPG, Al Wehda Club 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Al Wehda Club (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.15 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights