Al-Fayha vs Al Taawon – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Fayha at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fayha vs Al Taawon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Taawon make the trip to King Abdullah Sports City Stadium to face Al-Fayha in Pro League, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Thursday 18 February 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Al-Fayha (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fayha at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al Taawon's overall Pro League record this term: 0W 4D 6L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al Taawon have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 exceeds their overall 0.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Al-Fayha against 0.40 for Al Taawon. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Al-Fayha register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Al Taawon in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 10 meetings, Al Taawon have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Al-Fayha's 1, with 5 draws in the mix.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Aug 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Al Taawon have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 10 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Fayha — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Al Taawon — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 54% versus Al Taawon 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 54% | Al Taawon 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.70 xG and Al Taawon 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 1.017 / defence 1.190 | Al Taawon attack 0.815 / defence 1.200. League average goals — home 1.390 / away 1.403. Data: 44 Al-Fayha games / 44 Al Taawon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 43% | Draw 28% | Al Taawon 29%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | Al Taawon 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.70 / 1.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Fayha as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Fayha if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.06 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fayha 70% | Al Taawon 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Al Taawon | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 18 Feb 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 43% | Draw 28% | Al Taawon 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 63% | xG Al-Fayha 1.70 / Al Taawon 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 1.017 / def 1.190 | Al Taawon attack 0.815 / def 1.200 | league avg home 1.390 / away 1.403 • Poisson stance: Al-Fayha (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Al Taawon xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fayha vs Al Taawon kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Al Taawon is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Thursday 18 February 2027 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Al Taawon being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Al Taawon part of?
Al-Fayha vs Al Taawon is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Al Taawon?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 43% chance of winning, Al Taawon a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al-Fayha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Al Taawon?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Al-Fayha and Al Taawon will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fayha vs Al Taawon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al Taawon?
Record (10 meetings): Al-Fayha 1W | Draws 5 | Al Taawon 4W.
What form are Al-Fayha and Al Taawon in?
Al-Fayha (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-L-D. Al Taawon (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al-Fayha's attack rating (1.02) and Al Taawon's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.70 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al Taawon's attack (0.81x) against Al-Fayha's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fayha Win
43%
2.32
28%
3.53
29%
3.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
3.06
1.36
Al Taawon xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
3.51
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
26%
3.90
18%
5.46
Win to Nil
11%
9.04
5%
19.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.4 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 10.8 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.2 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Al Taawon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Al Taawon expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 1.36 for Al Taawon, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Al Taawon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Fayha's recent record stands at 10W 13D 21L from 44 games, a 0.98 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Taawon, meanwhile, have gone 15W 12D 17L across 44 games — 1.30 PPG, with L-L-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Al Taawon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.98 PPG for Al-Fayha against 1.30 for Al Taawon. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al-Fayha have managed 7W 8D 7L from 22 games — 1.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Taawon's away record stands at 8W 4D 10L across 22 trips, a 1.27 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Fayha are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Al Taawon are on 1.43 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Blended
Al Taawon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fayha and Al Taawon in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 10W 13D 21L in their last 44 games (0.98 PPG), while Al Taawon have gone 15W 12D 17L in their last 44 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or Al Taawon away?
Al-Fayha's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 1.32 PPG; Al Taawon away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 25 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Taawon won 4-1 on 8 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Fayha have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al Taawon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Al-Fayha
5
Draws
4
Al Taawon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al Taawon?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Fayha have won 1, Al Taawon have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Al Taawon last play each other?
They last met on 25 August 2026, when Al Taawon 0-0 Al-Fayha.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fayha and Al Taawon?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fayha 59%, Al Taawon 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al-Fayha) and 59% (Al Taawon).
On the defensive side: Al Taawon in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Al Taawon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fayha play Al Taawon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Al-Fayha's games and 64% of Al Taawon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Fayha vs Al Taawon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Al-Fayha's recent games and 59% of Al Taawon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fayha and Al Taawon tend to score early?
Al-Fayha have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Al Taawon in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.