🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Stalemate at Al-Fayha's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 18, as Al-Fayha and Al Taawon drew 0-0 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 0.84 xG and Al Taawon 1.11 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al-Fayha fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Al Taawon landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.74 / defence 0.94 against Al Taawon attack 0.86 / defence 0.77, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 27% | Draw 31% | Al Taawon 42%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 53%, Al Taawon 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Fayha's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Al Taawon's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Al Taawon arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.16. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line. Al Taawon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights