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Shock result as Al-Fayha defy the odds to beat Al-Qadisiyah FC 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Fayha beat Al-Qadisiyah FC 2-1 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 0.80 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.03 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Al-Fayha beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.57 / defence 0.78 against Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.99 / defence 0.99, drawn from 60/26 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 27% | Draw 33% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 40%, with Al-Qadisiyah FC to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Al-Fayha win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 31%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Fayha's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Qadisiyah FC arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Al-Fayha winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.54 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Qadisiyah FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights