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Al-Fayha cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al Okhdood.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Fayha beat Al Okhdood 2-0 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 1.05 xG and Al Okhdood 0.92 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al-Fayha beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al Okhdood landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.79 / defence 0.85 against Al Okhdood attack 0.73 / defence 0.87, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 37% | Draw 33% | Al Okhdood 30%, with Al-Fayha to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 44%, Al Okhdood 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Fayha's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not.

Al Okhdood's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Fayha 1.07 PPG, Al Okhdood 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Fayha win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights