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Poisson rates Al-Fayha at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fayha vs Al Okhdood encounter.

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Match Analysis

Al-Fayha host Al Okhdood at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 7 November 2025 at 13:20 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Fayha have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al-Fayha have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Al-Fayha's home record at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Okhdood stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al Okhdood have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Al Okhdood's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Fayha at 1.10 PPG versus Al Okhdood's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H Record

The fixture history tells a clear story: Al-Fayha have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 4 past contests while Al Okhdood have managed just 0 wins.

The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2025, ended 2–0 with Al-Fayha winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Fayha and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

In-Play Data

Al-Fayha trading profile (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.

Al Okhdood trading profile (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 42% versus Al Okhdood 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 44% | Al Okhdood 51%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.05 xG and Al Okhdood 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.794 / defence 0.846 | Al Okhdood attack 0.732 / defence 0.871. League average goals — home 1.518 / away 1.480. Al-Fayha's attack strength of 0.794 is below the league average — the 1.05 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 41 Al-Fayha games / 41 Al Okhdood games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 37% | Draw 33% | Al Okhdood 30%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 2.70 | Draw 3.03 | Al Okhdood 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Fayha at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fayha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 1.97 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fayha 50% | Al Okhdood 30% BTTS from recent games.

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