🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Al Kholood run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Al-Fayha.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Kholood beat Al-Fayha 0-5 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 1.36 xG and Al Kholood 0.81 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Al-Fayha fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Al Kholood outscored their 0.81 projection by 4.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.78 / defence 0.74 against Al Kholood attack 0.77 / defence 1.17, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 49% | Draw 29% | Al Kholood 22%, with Al-Fayha to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Al Kholood win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 42%, Al Kholood 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Fayha's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Al Kholood's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Fayha 1.07 PPG, Al Kholood 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Kholood win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Kholood (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights