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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson model rates Al-Fayha at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fayha vs Al Kholood fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 13 as Al-Fayha welcome Al Kholood to King Abdullah Sports City Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 3 January 2026 at 14:55 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Fayha have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Fayha have posted 4W 4D 2L at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Al-Fayha are significantly better at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Kholood stand at 3W 0D 7L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Kholood, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al Kholood's away record: 2W 0D 8L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al-Fayha 0.90 PPG, Al Kholood 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Al-Fayha, 1 for Al Kholood and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 21 May 2025, ended 0–2 with Al Kholood winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Al-Fayha in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.

Al Kholood in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 40% versus Al Kholood 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 42% | Al Kholood 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.36 xG and Al Kholood 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.784 / defence 0.736 | Al Kholood attack 0.770 / defence 1.172. League average goals — home 1.475 / away 1.436. Al-Fayha's attack strength of 0.784 is below the league average — the 1.36 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Fayha's defence rating of 0.736 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 45 Al-Fayha games / 45 Al Kholood games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 49% | Draw 29% | Al Kholood 22%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 2.04 | Draw 3.45 | Al Kholood 4.55. Al-Fayha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Fayha at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fayha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al-Fayha 50% | Al Kholood 60%.

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