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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al-Fayha cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al Khaleej Saihat.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Fayha beat Al Khaleej Saihat 3-1 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 1.43 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.59 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Al-Fayha beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.75 / defence 0.96 against Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.15 / defence 1.25, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 33% | Draw 26% | Al Khaleej Saihat 41%, with Al Khaleej Saihat to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Al-Fayha win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 43%, Al Khaleej Saihat 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Fayha's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.

Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Fayha 1.04 PPG, Al Khaleej Saihat 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Fayha win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights