Al-Fayha vs Al-Ittihad FC Prediction & Preview
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Poisson model favours Al-Ittihad FC (44%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Al-Fayha face Al-Ittihad FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Fayha and Al-Ittihad FC meet at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium in Pro League (matchday 23). This fixture gets under way on Thursday 18 March 2027 at 18:00 UK time.
Current Form
Al-Fayha's record over their last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Al-Fayha have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Ittihad FC (all games): 7W 2D 1L across their last 10 — 2.30 points per game. Last five: W L W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Al-Ittihad FC have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Al-Ittihad FC arrive in superior form — a 1.20 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Al-Fayha's last 10 home games and Al-Ittihad FC's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 80% of Al-Fayha's games and 70% of Al-Ittihad FC's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Across the 10 H2H matches in our data, Al-Ittihad FC have the stronger record — 7 wins to Al-Fayha's 0, with 3 draws.
The 10 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 8 Sep 2026, ended Al-Fayha 1–2 Al-Ittihad FC — a Al-Ittihad FC win.
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 7 wins from 10 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading
Al-Fayha half-time and goal-timing data (last 45 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Al-Ittihad FC half-time and goal-timing data (last 45 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 56% versus Al-Ittihad FC 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 56% | Al-Ittihad FC 51%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Al-Fayha surrender their half-time lead 36% of the time, while Al-Ittihad FC have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.56 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 1.108 / defence 1.126 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.130 / defence 0.934. League average goals — home 1.507 / away 1.478. Data: built from Al-Fayha's last 46 games and Al-Ittihad FC's last 45.
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 30% | Draw 26% | Al-Ittihad FC 44%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 3.28 | Draw 3.86 | Al-Ittihad FC 2.29. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS Yes probability 69% | Total xG 3.44. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.44 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% — both xG figures (1.56 / 1.88) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad FC at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.44 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Fayha's last 10 home games and Al-Ittihad FC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Fayha 80% (last 10 home games) | Al-Ittihad FC 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Al-Ittihad FC | Competition: Pro League, matchday 23 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 18 March 2027 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 30% | Draw 26% | Al-Ittihad FC 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% (Under 33%) | BTTS Yes 69% (No 31%) | xG Al-Fayha 1.56 / Al-Ittihad FC 1.88 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 1.108 / def 1.126 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.130 / def 0.934 | league avg home 1.507 / away 1.478 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
1.88
Al-Ittihad FC xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Fayha vs Al-Ittihad FC FAQs
What time does Al-Fayha vs Al-Ittihad FC kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Ittihad FC is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 UK time on Thursday 18 March 2027 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Al-Ittihad FC being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Al-Ittihad FC part of?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Ittihad FC is a Pro League fixture (matchday 23) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 30% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad FC a 44% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Al-Fayha and Al-Ittihad FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al-Fayha vs Al-Ittihad FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al-Fayha's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Al-Ittihad FC's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. Flip it around — Al-Ittihad FC's attack (1.13x) against Al-Fayha's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.88.
These ratings are built from Al-Fayha's last 46 games and Al-Ittihad FC's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
30%
3.28
26%
3.86
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
3.44
1.88
Al-Ittihad FC xG
3.28
30%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.20
Clean Sheet
15%
6.55
21%
4.76
Win to Nil
5%
21.51
9%
10.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 6.0 | 5.7 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.4 | 8.8 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 7.3 | 6.9 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Fayha vs Al-Ittihad FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Al-Ittihad FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 1.88 for Al-Ittihad FC, a combined total of 3.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Fayha come into this having played 45 games, going 11W 13D 21L for 1.02 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-W.
On the other side, Al-Ittihad FC sit at 1.76 PPG from 45 outings (23W 10D 12L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-D across their last five.
Al-Ittihad FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.74 PPG clear of Al-Fayha — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Al-Fayha's home form reads 8W 8D 7L across their last 23 home games, a 1.39 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Ittihad FC have taken 1.52 points per game from their last 23 away games (9W 8D 6L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Fayha are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad FC are on 1.69 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad FC in 62%.
Last 45 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Blended
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
Al-Fayha (Home) vs Al-Ittihad FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Fayha
Blended
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
❓ Al-Fayha vs Al-Ittihad FC Form FAQs
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Ittihad FC in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 11W 13D 21L in their last 45 games (1.02 PPG), while Al-Ittihad FC have gone 23W 10D 12L in their last 45 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or Al-Ittihad FC away?
Al-Ittihad FC's away record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 1.39 PPG; Al-Ittihad FC away: 1.52 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to January 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 8 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Al-Ittihad FC have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ittihad FC won Al-Ittihad FC 3-0 Al-Fayha on 19 Jan 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Fayha have gone 0W 3D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Al-Ittihad FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Al-Fayha
3
Draws
7
Al-Ittihad FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Fayha vs Al-Ittihad FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Ittihad FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Fayha have won 0, Al-Ittihad FC have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Al-Ittihad FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 September 2026: Al-Ittihad FC 2-1 Al-Fayha.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fayha and Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 61% for Al-Fayha, 74% for Al-Ittihad FC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Al-Fayha) and 56% (Al-Ittihad FC).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Al-Ittihad FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Fayha vs Al-Ittihad FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Fayha and Al-Ittihad FC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Al-Fayha's games and 74% of Al-Ittihad FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al-Fayha and Al-Ittihad FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Al-Fayha's recent games and 56% of Al-Ittihad FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fayha and Al-Ittihad FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Al-Fayha's recent matches and 74% of Al-Ittihad FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.