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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al-Fayha and Al-Ittihad FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Fayha and Al-Ittihad FC finished level at 1-1 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 0.84 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.75 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.75 / defence 1.06 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.12 / defence 0.82, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 18% | Draw 23% | Al-Ittihad FC 59%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 53%, Al-Ittihad FC 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Fayha's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights