🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Al-Hilal Saudi FC edge out Al-Fayha 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al-Fayha 0-1 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 1.14 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.85 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al-Fayha fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Al-Hilal Saudi FC landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 1.01 / defence 0.96 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.38 / defence 0.74, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 23% | Draw 24% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 53%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 46%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Fayha's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.10. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.55 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights