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Stalemate at Al-Fayha's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 11, as Al-Fayha and Al-Hazm drew 0-0 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 1.38 xG and Al-Hazm 1.07 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al-Fayha fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Al-Hazm landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.89 / defence 0.80 against Al-Hazm attack 0.90 / defence 1.01, drawn from 43/9 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 42% | Draw 31% | Al-Hazm 27%, with Al-Fayha to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 67%, Al-Hazm 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Fayha's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Al-Hazm's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Fayha 1.22 PPG, Al-Hazm 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Hazm (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights