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Poisson model rates Al-Fayha at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fayha vs Al-Hazm fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Al-Hazm travel to King Abdullah Sports City Stadium to take on Al-Fayha. The game is scheduled for Thursday 25 December 2025, 14:50 UTC.

Form Guide

Al-Fayha — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Fayha at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.

Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Hazm have recorded 2W 3D 4L from 9 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.89 per game is modest, conceding 1.56 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hazm, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Hazm's away record: 2W 2D 1L from 5 road trips in Pro League this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al-Fayha 1.10 PPG, Al-Hazm 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Al-Fayha, 1 for Al-Hazm and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Feb 2024, ended 3–1 with Al-Fayha winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Al-Fayha in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games).

Al-Hazm in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Fayha 67% and Al-Hazm 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 67% | Al-Hazm 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.38 xG and Al-Hazm 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.894 / defence 0.799 | Al-Hazm attack 0.895 / defence 1.011. League average goals — home 1.528 / away 1.502. Al-Fayha's defence rating of 0.799 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 Al-Fayha games / 9 Al-Hazm games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 42% | Draw 31% | Al-Hazm 27%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 2.38 | Draw 3.23 | Al-Hazm 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al-Fayha are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fayha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fayha 50% | Al-Hazm 80% BTTS from recent games.

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