Al-Fayha 0-0 Al-Hazm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Fayha at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fayha vs Al-Hazm fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Al-Hazm travel to King Abdullah Sports City Stadium to take on Al-Fayha. The game is scheduled for Thursday 25 December 2025, 14:50 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Fayha — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fayha at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Hazm have recorded 2W 3D 4L from 9 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.89 per game is modest, conceding 1.56 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hazm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hazm's away record: 2W 2D 1L from 5 road trips in Pro League this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al-Fayha 1.10 PPG, Al-Hazm 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Al-Fayha, 1 for Al-Hazm and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Feb 2024, ended 3–1 with Al-Fayha winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Al-Fayha in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games).
Al-Hazm in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Fayha 67% and Al-Hazm 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 67% | Al-Hazm 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.38 xG and Al-Hazm 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.894 / defence 0.799 | Al-Hazm attack 0.895 / defence 1.011. League average goals — home 1.528 / away 1.502. Al-Fayha's defence rating of 0.799 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 Al-Fayha games / 9 Al-Hazm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 42% | Draw 31% | Al-Hazm 27%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 2.38 | Draw 3.23 | Al-Hazm 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Fayha are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fayha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fayha 50% | Al-Hazm 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Al-Hazm | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 25 Dec 2025, 14:50 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 42% | Draw 31% | Al-Hazm 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Al-Fayha 1.38 / Al-Hazm 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 0.894 / def 0.799 | Al-Hazm attack 0.895 / def 1.011 | league avg home 1.528 / away 1.502 • Poisson stance: Al-Fayha (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Al-Hazm xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fayha vs Al-Hazm kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Hazm kicked off at 14:50 on Thursday 25 December 2025 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Hazm?
Al-Fayha 0 - 0 Al-Hazm.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Al-Hazm being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Al-Hazm part of?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Hazm is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Al-Hazm?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 42% chance of winning, Al-Hazm a 27% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Al-Fayha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Hazm?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Al-Fayha and Al-Hazm will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fayha vs Al-Hazm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Hazm?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Fayha 2W | Draws 1 | Al-Hazm 1W.
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Hazm in?
Al-Fayha (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Al-Hazm (all comps): 2W-3D-4L in 9 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.89 / GA 1.56 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Fayha's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Al-Hazm's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Hazm's attack versus Al-Fayha's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fayha Win
42%
2.40
31%
3.20
27%
3.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
2.45
1.07
Al-Hazm xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
3.70
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
14%
7.01
7%
14.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.7 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.8 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Al-Hazm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Al-Hazm expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 1.07 for Al-Hazm, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Al-Hazm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Fayha's recent record stands at 3W 2D 4L from 9 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Hazm, meanwhile, have gone 2W 3D 4L across 9 games — 1.00 PPG, with W-L-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Al-Hazm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Fayha on 1.22 PPG, Al-Hazm on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al-Fayha have managed 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Hazm's away record stands at 2W 1D 1L across 4 trips, a 1.75 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.00 PPG overall record — Al-Hazm travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hazm come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Fayha are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Al-Hazm are on 0.89 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fayha have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 9 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Blended
Al-Hazm
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Hazm in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 3W 2D 4L in their last 9 games (1.22 PPG), while Al-Hazm have gone 2W 3D 4L in their last 9 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or Al-Hazm away?
Al-Hazm's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 1.25 PPG; Al-Hazm away: 1.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Fayha and Al-Hazm runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Fayha's record when hosting Al-Hazm specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Al-Fayha
2
Draws
2
Al-Hazm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Hazm?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Fayha have won 2, Al-Hazm have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Al-Hazm last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Al-Hazm 2-0 Al-Fayha.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Fayha see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al-Hazm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fayha 50%, Al-Hazm 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Al-Fayha) and 75% (Al-Hazm).
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Al-Hazm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fayha play Al-Hazm?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Al-Fayha's games and 75% of Al-Hazm's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Fayha vs Al-Hazm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Al-Fayha's recent games and 75% of Al-Hazm's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fayha and Al-Hazm tend to score early?
Al-Fayha have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Al-Hazm in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al-Fayha's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 11, as Al-Fayha and Al-Hazm drew 0-0 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 1.38 xG and Al-Hazm 1.07 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al-Fayha fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Al-Hazm landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.89 / defence 0.80 against Al-Hazm attack 0.90 / defence 1.01, drawn from 43/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 42% | Draw 31% | Al-Hazm 27%, with Al-Fayha to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 67%, Al-Hazm 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fayha's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Hazm's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Fayha 1.22 PPG, Al-Hazm 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Hazm (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.