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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al-Fayha cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al-Fateh.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Fayha beat Al-Fateh 2-0 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 0.91 xG and Al-Fateh 1.21 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al-Fayha beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Fateh landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.67 / defence 1.04 against Al-Fateh attack 0.78 / defence 0.89, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 26% | Draw 32% | Al-Fateh 42%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Al-Fayha win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 44%, Al-Fateh 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Fayha's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not.

Al-Fateh's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Fayha 1.00 PPG, Al-Fateh 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Fayha win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights