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Poisson rates Al-Fateh at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh encounter.

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Match Analysis

Al-Fayha host Al-Fateh at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 25 January 2026 at 17:30 UTC.

Form Guide

Al-Fayha — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, Al-Fayha have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Al-Fayha are significantly better at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Fateh stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Fateh's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al-Fateh are 1.10 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

Head to Head

Al-Fayha hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 9 previous encounters compared to 0 for Al-Fateh, with 5 draws in between.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2025, ended 2–1 with Al-Fayha winning.

The historical record gives Al-Fayha a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Al-Fayha in-play and half-time data (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.

Al-Fateh in-play and half-time data (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 42% versus Al-Fateh 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 44% | Al-Fateh 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 0.91 xG and Al-Fateh 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.674 / defence 1.037 | Al-Fateh attack 0.783 / defence 0.890. League average goals — home 1.511 / away 1.493. Al-Fayha's attack strength of 0.674 is below the league average — the 0.91 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 50 Al-Fayha games / 50 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 26% | Draw 32% | Al-Fateh 42%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 3.85 | Draw 3.12 | Al-Fateh 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

Al-Fayha dominate the H2H record, yet Al-Fateh are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Fateh at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fateh offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.12 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fayha 40% | Al-Fateh 50% BTTS from recent games.

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