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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al-Fayha and Al-Fateh share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Fayha and Al-Fateh finished level at 1-1 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 1.07 xG and Al-Fateh 0.92 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.55 / defence 0.78 against Al-Fateh attack 0.89 / defence 1.32, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 38% | Draw 31% | Al-Fateh 31%, with Al-Fayha to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 48%, Al-Fateh 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Fayha's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Fateh's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Fayha 1.17 PPG, Al-Fateh 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights