Al-Fayha 3-2 Abha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Fayha at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fayha vs Abha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Abha travel to Al Majma'ah Sport City to take on Al-Fayha. The game is scheduled for Friday 28 August 2026, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Fayha stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al-Fayha have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Fayha's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Al Majma'ah Sport City this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Al-Fayha are significantly better at Al Majma'ah Sport City than their overall form suggests.
Across all Pro League games this season, Abha have recorded 0W 1D 2L from 3 outings — 0.33 PPG. Last five: L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.67 per game is modest, conceding 2.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.33 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Abha have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al-Fayha 0.60 PPG, Abha 0.33 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Fayha register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Abha in 67% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Al-Fayha, 1 for Abha and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Feb 2024, ended 3–2 with Al-Fayha winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Al-Fayha trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
Abha trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 33% versus Abha 67%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Fayha 67% | Abha 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.70 xG and Abha 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.895 / defence 1.086 | Abha attack 0.710 / defence 1.374. League average goals — home 1.383 / away 1.392. Abha bring a strong defensive rating of 1.374 — this is suppressing Al-Fayha's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Al-Fayha games / 3 Abha games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 50% | Draw 28% | Abha 22%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 2.00 | Draw 3.57 | Abha 4.55. Al-Fayha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Fayha are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fayha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.78 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fayha 60% | Abha 67% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Abha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Al Majma'ah Sport City • Kick-off: Friday 28 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 50% | Draw 28% | Abha 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Al-Fayha 1.70 / Abha 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 0.895 / def 1.086 | Abha attack 0.710 / def 1.374 | league avg home 1.383 / away 1.392 • Poisson stance: Al-Fayha (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Abha xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fayha vs Abha kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Abha kicked off at 16:00 on Friday 28 August 2026 at Al Majma'ah Sport City.
What was the final score in Al-Fayha vs Abha?
Al-Fayha 3 - 2 Abha.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Abha being played?
The match is being played at Al Majma'ah Sport City.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Abha part of?
Al-Fayha vs Abha is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Abha?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 50% chance of winning, Abha a 22% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al-Fayha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Abha?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Al-Fayha and Abha will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fayha vs Abha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Abha?
Record (6 meetings): Al-Fayha 2W | Draws 3 | Abha 1W.
What form are Al-Fayha and Abha in?
Al-Fayha (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Abha (all comps): 0W-1D-2L in 3 | 0.33 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 2.33 | L5 L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al-Fayha's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Abha's defensive record (1.37x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.70. The same calculation in reverse, Abha's attack versus Al-Fayha's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (37/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fayha Win
50%
1.99
28%
3.62
22%
4.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
2.78
1.07
Abha xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
4.52
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
18%
5.48
Win to Nil
17%
5.83
4%
24.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 11.4 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.7 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Abha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Abha expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 1.07 for Abha, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Abha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 3 outings, Al-Fayha have picked up 0.33 PPG on a 0W 1D 2L record — L-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al-Fayha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Abha's form line: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games, 0.33 PPG, last five L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Abha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Fayha on 0.33 PPG, Abha on 0.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Fayha are averaging 0.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Abha are on 0.67 scored and 2.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Abha in 67%.
Last 3 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Early Season
Abha
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fayha and Abha in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 games (0.33 PPG), while Abha have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 (0.33 PPG).
Have Al-Fayha or Abha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fayha have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Abha in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 28 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Al-Fayha have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Al-Fayha's record when hosting Abha specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Al-Fayha
3
Draws
1
Abha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Abha?
From 7 meetings on record, Al-Fayha have won 3, Abha have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Abha last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2026, when Al-Fayha 3-2 Abha.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fayha and Abha?
Al-Fayha have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Abha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fayha 33%, Abha 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Al-Fayha and 67% for Abha. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al-Fayha have failed to score in 67% of games; Abha in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Abha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fayha play Abha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Al-Fayha's recent matches and 67% of Abha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fayha vs Abha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Al-Fayha's matches and 67% of Abha's.
Do Al-Fayha and Abha tend to score early?
Al-Fayha have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Abha in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Fayha edge out Abha 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fayha beat Abha 3-2 at Al Majma'ah Sport City, Regular Season - 4, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 1.70 xG and Abha 1.07 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Al-Fayha beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Abha outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.90 / defence 1.09 against Abha attack 0.71 / defence 1.37, drawn from 37/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 50% | Draw 28% | Abha 22%, with Al-Fayha to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 67%, Abha 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fayha's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Abha's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Fayha 0.33 PPG, Abha 0.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Fayha win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Fayha scored 3 against a 0.33 average — above their attacking norm. Abha scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.