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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al-Fateh and Damac share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Fateh and Damac finished level at 1-1 at Al Fateh club stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 2.02 xG and Damac 1.03 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Al-Fateh fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 1.08 / defence 1.19 against Damac attack 0.62 / defence 1.26, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 60% | Draw 23% | Damac 18%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 58%, Damac 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Fateh's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Damac's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Fateh 1.16 PPG, Damac 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights