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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Al-Fateh defy the odds to beat Damac 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Fateh beat Damac 2-1 at Al Fateh Club Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 1.34 xG and Damac 1.64 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 0.87 / defence 1.17 against Damac attack 0.97 / defence 1.08, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 31% | Draw 24% | Damac 45%, with Damac to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Al-Fateh win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 65%, Damac 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Fateh's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.

Damac's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Fateh 1.04 PPG, Damac 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Fateh win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights