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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Al Taawon run riot with a 2-5 hammering of Al-Fateh.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Taawon beat Al-Fateh 2-5 at Al Fateh club stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 1.22 xG and Al Taawon 1.49 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. Al Taawon outscored their 1.49 projection by 3.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 0.96 / defence 0.95 against Al Taawon attack 1.07 / defence 0.83, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 30% | Draw 28% | Al Taawon 42%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 61%, Al Taawon 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Fateh's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Al Taawon's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Al Taawon arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 1.07. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Taawon (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights