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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson rates Al Taawon at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fateh vs Al Taawon encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 8 as Al-Fateh welcome Al Taawon to Al Fateh club stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 7 November 2025 at 14:35 UTC.

Form Guide

Al-Fateh — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al-Fateh have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Al-Fateh's home record at Al Fateh club stadium: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Al-Fateh are significantly better at Al Fateh club stadium than their overall form suggests.

Across all Pro League games this season, Al Taawon have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al Taawon have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Al Taawon's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al Taawon — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Fateh register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Al Taawon in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Al-Fateh have won 3, Al Taawon 3, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Mar 2025, ended 1–2 with Al Taawon winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Al-Fateh in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).

Al Taawon in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fateh 68% versus Al Taawon 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 61% | Al Taawon 39%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.22 xG and Al Taawon 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 0.963 / defence 0.952 | Al Taawon attack 1.068 / defence 0.829. League average goals — home 1.530 / away 1.467. Data: 41 Al-Fateh games / 41 Al Taawon games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 30% | Draw 28% | Al Taawon 42%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 3.33 | Draw 3.57 | Al Taawon 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Taawon at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Taawon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fateh 70% | Al Taawon 60% BTTS from recent games.

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