Al-Fateh 2-5 Al Taawon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Taawon at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fateh vs Al Taawon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 8 as Al-Fateh welcome Al Taawon to Al Fateh club stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 7 November 2025 at 14:35 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Fateh — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al-Fateh have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Fateh's home record at Al Fateh club stadium: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Al-Fateh are significantly better at Al Fateh club stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Taawon have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al Taawon have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Taawon's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al Taawon — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Fateh register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Al Taawon in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Al-Fateh have won 2, Al Taawon 3, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Mar 2025, ended 1–2 with Al Taawon winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Al-Fateh in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Al Taawon in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fateh 68% versus Al Taawon 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 61% | Al Taawon 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.22 xG and Al Taawon 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 0.963 / defence 0.952 | Al Taawon attack 1.068 / defence 0.829. League average goals — home 1.530 / away 1.467. Data: 41 Al-Fateh games / 41 Al Taawon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 30% | Draw 28% | Al Taawon 42%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 3.33 | Draw 3.57 | Al Taawon 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Taawon at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Taawon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fateh 70% | Al Taawon 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Al Taawon | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Al Fateh club stadium • Kick-off: Friday 7 Nov 2025, 14:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 30% | Draw 28% | Al Taawon 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Al-Fateh 1.22 / Al Taawon 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 0.963 / def 0.952 | Al Taawon attack 1.068 / def 0.829 | league avg home 1.530 / away 1.467 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Al Taawon xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Al Taawon kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Al Taawon kicked off at 14:35 on Friday 7 November 2025 at Al Fateh club stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fateh vs Al Taawon?
Al-Fateh 2 - 5 Al Taawon.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Al Taawon being played?
The match is being played at Al Fateh club stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Al Taawon part of?
Al-Fateh vs Al Taawon is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Al Taawon?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 30% chance of winning, Al Taawon a 42% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Al Taawon?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Al-Fateh and Al Taawon will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Al Taawon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al Taawon?
Record (7 meetings): Al-Fateh 2W | Draws 2 | Al Taawon 3W.
What form are Al-Fateh and Al Taawon in?
Al-Fateh (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-W-D. Al Taawon (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al-Fateh's attack at 0.96x the league average against Al Taawon's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Taawon's attack versus Al-Fateh's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
30%
3.34
28%
3.62
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
2.71
1.49
Al Taawon xG
3.34
30%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
22%
4.45
29%
3.39
Win to Nil
7%
14.83
13%
8.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 9.9 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.1 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.4 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Al Taawon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Al Taawon expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 1.49 for Al Taawon, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Al Taawon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Fateh come into this having played 41 games, going 12W 8D 21L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for Al-Fateh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al Taawon sit at 1.54 PPG from 41 outings (18W 9D 14L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Taawon, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Taawon carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Al-Fateh — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Fateh's home form reads 8W 3D 9L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.35 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Taawon have taken 1.40 points per game from 20 outings (8W 4D 8L).
The Goals Picture
Al-Fateh are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Al Taawon are on 1.41 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fateh have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 41 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Early Season
Al Taawon
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Al Taawon in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 12W 8D 21L in their last 41 games (1.07 PPG), while Al Taawon have gone 18W 9D 14L in their last 41 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Al Taawon away?
Al Taawon's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 1.35 PPG; Al Taawon away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Al-Fateh or Al Taawon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fateh have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Al Taawon in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Fateh and Al Taawon runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Nov 2025, when Al Taawon won 2-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Fateh's record when hosting Al Taawon specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Al-Fateh
3
Draws
5
Al Taawon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al Taawon?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 2, Al Taawon have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Al Taawon last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Al Taawon 0-0 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fateh and Al Taawon?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Al Taawon see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fateh 80%, Al Taawon 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Al-Fateh) and 35% (Al Taawon).
On the defensive side: Al Taawon in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Al Taawon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Al Taawon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Al-Fateh's games and 40% of Al Taawon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Fateh vs Al Taawon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 65% of Al-Fateh's recent games and 35% of Al Taawon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fateh and Al Taawon tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Al Taawon in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al Taawon run riot with a 2-5 hammering of Al-Fateh.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Taawon beat Al-Fateh 2-5 at Al Fateh club stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 1.22 xG and Al Taawon 1.49 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. Al Taawon outscored their 1.49 projection by 3.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 0.96 / defence 0.95 against Al Taawon attack 1.07 / defence 0.83, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 30% | Draw 28% | Al Taawon 42%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 61%, Al Taawon 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fateh's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Al Taawon's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Taawon arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 1.07. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Taawon (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.