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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Al Taawon edge out Al-Fateh 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Taawon beat Al-Fateh 1-2 at Al Fateh Club Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 0.87 xG and Al Taawon 0.97 xG, a combined 1.84. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Al Taawon outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 0.84 / defence 1.02 against Al Taawon attack 0.70 / defence 0.68, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 31% | Draw 32% | Al Taawon 37%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 64%, Al Taawon 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Fateh's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.

Al Taawon's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Al Taawon arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 1.14. Form held, and they took the win. Al Taawon (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights