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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al-Fateh cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al Shabab.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Fateh beat Al Shabab 2-0 at Al Fateh club stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 1.50 xG and Al Shabab 1.20 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al Shabab landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 1.13 / defence 1.14 against Al Shabab attack 0.73 / defence 0.91, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 44% | Draw 27% | Al Shabab 30%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 62%, Al Shabab 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Fateh's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.

Al Shabab's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Fateh 1.11 PPG, Al Shabab 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Fateh win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line. Al Shabab (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights