🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Al-Fateh at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Al Shabab travel to Al Fateh club stadium to take on Al-Fateh. The game is scheduled for Saturday 3 January 2026, 13:10 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Fateh stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Al Fateh club stadium, Al-Fateh have gone 6W 0D 4L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Al-Fateh are significantly better at Al Fateh club stadium than their overall form suggests.

Al Shabab — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Shabab have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Al-Fateh) versus 0.80 (Al Shabab). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Fateh register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Al Shabab in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Al-Fateh, 2 for Al Shabab and 3 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 May 2025, ended 3–1 with Al-Fateh winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Al-Fateh in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).

Al Shabab in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Fateh 69% and Al Shabab 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 62% | Al Shabab 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.50 xG and Al Shabab 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 1.127 / defence 1.139 | Al Shabab attack 0.728 / defence 0.908. League average goals — home 1.469 / away 1.452. Data: 45 Al-Fateh games / 45 Al Shabab games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 44% | Draw 27% | Al Shabab 30%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Al Shabab 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al-Fateh are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fateh offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fateh 80% | Al Shabab 60% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights