Al-Fateh vs Al Riyadh – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Al Riyadh edge out Al-Fateh 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Riyadh beat Al-Fateh 1-2 at Al Fateh Club Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 1.40 xG and Al Riyadh 1.57 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 0.94 / defence 1.22 against Al Riyadh attack 1.03 / defence 1.05, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 34% | Draw 24% | Al Riyadh 42%, with Al Riyadh to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 62%, Al Riyadh 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Fateh's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.

Al Riyadh's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Fateh 1.11 PPG, Al Riyadh 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Riyadh win broke the near-deadlock. Al Riyadh (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.95 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights